An analysis in Geoff Bacino’s newsletter argues that history and candidate recruitment give the party out of power a plausible, if difficult, path to retaking both chambers.

With just over 250 days until voters decide control of the House and Senate, Democrats are confronting long odds but pointing to historical trends and a slate of high-profile recruits as reasons for cautious optimism, according to a new political overview published Friday in former NCUA board member Geoff Bacino’s newsletter.

Republicans currently hold a 218-214 edge in the House, with three vacancies that could briefly reshape the math. Special elections are scheduled in California, Georgia and New Jersey.

In California, voters will choose a successor to Representative Doug Malfa, a Republican who passed away. Though the district has reliably favored Republicans, the August timing of the special election means the winner may have little time to settle into office before launching a re-election campaign.

Georgia will hold a March special election to replace Representative Majorie Taylor Green. If historical patterns hold, Republicans are expected to retain that seat. In New Jersey, a June contest will determine who replaces Mikie Sherrill, who is set to become governor. Democrats are favored there, in keeping with the state’s recent voting patterns.

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Midterm elections traditionally favor the party out of power, as voters often channel dissatisfaction toward the governing party. Democrats point to recent successes in state-level races in Virginia and New Jersey, along with special election victories in Georgia, Iowa, Mississippi and Pennsylvania, as evidence that political momentum can shift quickly.

The Senate presents a steeper climb. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reclaim control, a target that once appeared nearly unattainable. Now, Bacino writes, their chances have improved from “almost none” to merely slim.

The party has recruited prominent candidates in several competitive states: former Senator Sherrod Brown in Ohio, two-time Governor Janet Mills in Maine, Representative Mary Peltola in Alaska and former Governor Roy Cooper in North Carolina.

Still, Democrats must defend vulnerable seats in Georgia, New Hampshire and Michigan, complicating their path to a four-seat swing. Bacino, a Democrat, sums up the party’s position with a line borrowed from Dumb and Dumber, quoting Jim Carrey’s character: “So you’re telling me there’s a chance.”

For now, that chance — however narrow — is enough to keep both parties bracing for a closely contested midterm season.