Where the real divisions in America lie

Written By:

Michael Jamesson
Principal

Jamesson Associates

America is divided.

 Political polarization infects our everyday lives in ways that would have been inconceivable a couple of decades ago. The kind of beer or soda pop we buy can be predicted by our place on the political spectrum. An attempted change in Cracker Barrel’s logo was deemed “woke” and reversed. Trying to navigate these culture wars is enervating, so I won’t try. The divisions which I believe are real focus on employment, the economy, and inequality.

A key division in employment is between jobs in health care and all other sectors of the economy. The former have accounted for all the jobs created and more over the last four months. The details: total job growth from May to August was 107,000, while health care jobs were up 249,000. This is clearly not a balanced situation but one that speaks to distributional differences in the employment sphere.

In the face of this anemic overall job growth, the unemployment rate in the United States is still low at 4.3%. How can this be? It points to another division in the job landscape — a declining labor force participation rate. The decline certainly has a demographic component as 10,000 Baby Boomers turn 65 every day, but the most recent decline is related to the reversal of immigration flows. Estimates vary, but most suggest that 800,000 to 1 million foreign-born workers have left the labor force since the administration’s crackdown on immigration. So, both weak labor demand (slow job creation) and soft supply (lower labor force participation) are conspiring to produce a seeming employment equilibrium.

Age is another area where aggregate job numbers obscure more than they illuminate. The unemployment rate for 20–24-year-olds is 9.2% (more than double the overall rate). From August 2024 to August 2025, the headline rate rose by 0.1%, while that for the 20-24 age cohort increased by 1.3%. These are people at the start of their careers, hoping to get some on-the-job training and climb the corporate ladder. Artificial intelligence is materially impacting this group, since many entry-level jobs can be accomplished with AI queries.

Story continued below…

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AI is having a major impact on the American economy in more ways than just employment. In the first half of 2025, spending to support AI accounted for over 60% of the growth in GDP. Consider that just one sector of America’s $30 trillion economy was responsible for the lion’s share of growth. Consider further that probably fewer than a dozen companies accounted for the vast majority of AI spending, and you quickly see the divisions taking place. One way to see the divergence in spending is to note that data center construction is poised to exceed that for traditional offices. Keep in mind that humans occupy offices and AI is housed in data centers.

A key factor in the AI spending spree is that those companies driving the process are essentially rate insensitive. Their cash flows are huge, as are their starting cash balances. The opposite is true in the housing market. Mortgage rates are far higher than they were pre-Covid. That has locked in homeowners while proving a high hurdle for younger Americans looking to buy a house. Affordability is so challenged that few who don’t have a home to sell find it possible to buy.

Nowhere do averages conceal more than they reveal than in looking at wealth. In 2023, per capita wealth in the United States was $565,000, placing it fourth in the world. However, median wealth that same year was a much lower $112,000 which ranked fourteenth, behind much of northern Europe and even our neighbor to the north.

When it comes to statistics with dollar signs attached, inequality becomes much easier to see. So while overall employment has been soft, the economy has continued to power ahead. AI spending is clearly part of the story, but consumer spending by the affluent is the rest of the equation. Those who have benefited from strong stock market performance, high yields on liquid assets, and elevated housing values account for an ever-increasing portion of total expenditures (top 10% spend 50% in latest figures I have).

Aggregate statistics can help us understand a complex economy, but they can also lull us into believing that everything is all right when the majority is truly struggling. That seems to be the case today. I challenge you to look below the surface when considering reported statistics.

Remember that if you don’t consider yourself average, there is no reason to assume that everyone else is.

Jamesson Associates is a financial advisory firm for community banks and thrifts based in Scottsville, New York.

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2025-09-24T08:55:53-07:00
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