As the Supreme Court weighs a challenge to long-standing protections for agency leaders, the fate of the NCUA’s board — and the independence of financial regulators — hangs in the balance.

The National Credit Union Administration is operating under unusual strain, with a reduced staff, a single board member and a legal cloud that could redefine how independent regulators are governed.

In his latest newsletter, The Bacino Report, former NCUA board member Geoff Bacino, a Democrat, described an agency functioning with “a DOGE-required staff reduction and a single board member, Chairman Kyle Hauptman.”

Bacino said that while Hauptman and his chief of staff, Sarah Canapa Bang, have done “yeoman’s work,” the situation departs sharply from the NCUA’s traditional three-member board structure.

President Trump fired board members Todd Harper and Tanya Otsuka in April – years before their terms were scheduled to expire. Both have been fighting for reinstatement ever since — an unprecedented conflict that continued to cast a shadow over the agency throughout the year.

That board imbalance could soon become more consequential.

The Supreme Court agreed to hear Trump v. Slaughter last week, a case involving former Federal Trade Commission Commissioner Rebecca Slaughter, who was fired under circumstances similar to those surrounding the removals of former NCUA board members Todd Harper and Tanya Otsuka.

Lawyers for Harper and Otsuka have asked the court to consider their case alongside Slaughter’s.

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According to Bacino, legal opinion suggests that if Slaughter prevails, it would bode well for Harper and Otsuka. If the court sides with the administration, however, “the chances for Harper and Otsuka to be reinstated would be slim to none.”

At the heart of the dispute is Humphrey’s Executor, a 1935 Supreme Court precedent that has long protected leaders of independent agencies from being removed without cause.

During oral arguments last week, the Court’s conservative majority signaled a willingness to overturn or sharply narrow that doctrine. According to reporting by Politico, Chief Justice John Roberts suggested the precedent’s foundation “has eroded over time,” while liberal justices warned that weakening it could undermine the independence of agencies including the NCUA, the CFPB and even the Federal Reserve.

The uncertainty extends to the NCUA’s leadership itself. Bacino noted that Chairman Hauptman’s term expired in August and that, while there are “rumblings” of potential White House nominees, no official nomination has been made.

For credit unions and their regulator alike, the outcome could reshape not just board composition, but the balance of power between the White House and agencies designed to operate at arm’s length from politics.