Democrats could win big — unless they repeat the GOP’s 2022 mistakes.
With Republicans historically vulnerable in midterm elections and Democrats favored to retake the House, the party’s hopes of winning the Senate may hinge on competitive state races and whether its candidates can avoid the nomination missteps that cost Republicans in 2022.
There is less than a month until the 2026 mid-term elections and much like the past few years, there are no easy predictions.
The party in power has lost seats in 20 of the past 22 mid-term elections dating back to 1938. The only two exceptions were due to unusual circumstances – in 2002, the country was still recovering from the events of 9/11 and in 1998, the Democrats gained seats most likely due to the Republicans impeaching President Bill Clinton even though his approval ratings were 66%.
This year should most likely follow the traditional path of the Republicans losing ground due to the high unfavorable ratings of President Trump. However, Democrats may be looking at a repeat of what Republicans did to themselves in 2022 when control of the Senate was within their grasp. Instead of traditional Republicans, the party nominated nominal candidates such as Herschel Walker in Georgia, Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania and Blake Masters in Arizona. By virtue of winning these seats, the Democrats maintained control of the Senate.
With winnable races in Maine against Senator Susan Collins, Democrats first nominated Graham Platner but he was forced to drop out of the race after sexual assault allegations. Maine Dems then turned to Troy Jackson, but he has less than 100 days to figure out a way to defeat a five-term Senate incumbent. In Michigan, the progressive Democrat candidate, Dr. Abdul El-Sayed defeated the more moderate Rep. Haley Stevens. El-Sayed will face off against former Republican House member Mike Rogers for a seat that the Democrats must retain if they hope to take back control of the Senate.
Democrats are favored in North Carolina, which would be a flip of a Republican seat. But they also are competitive in Alaska, Maine, and Ohio. Picking up these four would put the Democrats over the top, but they must also successfully defend Michigan. Finally, Democrats also have two “dream” scenarios wherein they win Iowa and Texas. Iowa is in play due to the retirement of incumbent Republican Senator Joni Ernst. In Texas, Trump-backed Ken Paxton and his ethical issues are facing off against Rep. James Talarico.
On the House side, Democrats' hopes are higher. With Republicans having only a three-vote margin, the odds favor Democrats in November. Race to the White House, a non-partisan website, uses data-driven projections to forecast all 435 races and runs 10,000 simulations of the election. The model considers the recent electoral history of each district, the latest polling, fundraising, and other key data.
Their models give the Democrats a 74% chance to retake control of the House of Representatives, with the breakdown of seats predicted to be a 230-205 Democratic advantage.
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Crews takes the helm as legal battles over NCUA board seats and a key staff departure raise questions about the agency’s future.
Congratulations to John Crews on being named the 15th person to serve in the Chair position at NCUA. During his confirmation hearing, Crews reinforced his support for many of the initiatives previously advanced by Chairman Kyle Hauptman. This included technology innovations such as stablecoin and AI, a risk-based regulatory outlook and support for de novo credit unions.
What about the other two NCUA seats? It is assumed that the Supreme Court decision allowing the President to fire sitting Board members impacts former NCUA Board members Todd Harper and Tonya Otsuka. While that it is still most likely the case, Harper and Otsuka filed a motion arguing that being an NCUA Board member is similar to being a Federal
Reserve Board member, which the Supreme Court did not allow the President to fire.
Should the court agree to this argument, that could mean the reinstatement of Harper and Otsuka to the NCUA Board. The Harper and Otsuka response to the government’s assertion that NCUA is similar to the FTC and the Slaughter case is due on August 5th.
NCUA lost an outstanding credit union professional when Hauptman’s Chief of Staff, SarahCanepa Bang retired from the agency. Sarah’s steady hand was important as NCUA navigated the reality of a single Board member and the reduction in force that impacted the agency’s staff levels. Sarah had a distinguished career before joining Hauptman.
She served at COOP Financial Services, Financial Service Centers Coop and the Oregon CU League. She was honored with the Herb Wegner Award in 2014.
Geoff Bacino is a credit union consultant and former board member of the National Credit Union Administration.
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